Middle East Water Crisis

Human civilization was born along the waterways of the Middle East. As ancient cities expanded from thousands to millions, agriculture grew to sustain livelihoods, trade, and food security. However, today, the Middle East faces a severe water crisis.

Decades of poor water management, rapid population growth, and rising temperatures have degraded the land and depleted the region's already limited water resources. Once-mighty rivers have dwindled to mere trickles, shallow enough to cross on foot. These once-glorious waterways are vanishing before our eyes.

By 2050, every country in the Middle East and North Africa will experience extreme water stress. If temperatures rise by 4°C, the region's freshwater availability could drop by 75%. Many countries are projected to face temperature increases of about 5°C by the end of the century.

The nations most vulnerable to climate change-and least equipped to adapt-are also among the most conflict-ridden. Countries like Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan are either caught in their conflicts or affected by violence in neighboring states. Together, these challenges are worsening the region's water crisis and complicating efforts to address climate change.

Water vulnerability refers to a country's sensitivity, exposure, and ability to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change.

Readiness is a country's capacity to translate investments into effective climate adaptation measures. Water insecurity poses the greatest threat to nations already severely affected by conflict, and these crises can spill across borders.

By 2050, climate-induced water shortages could shrink the Arab region's GDP by an estimated 14%.

By 2070, populations may migrate from "red zones," where the climate becomes uninhabitable, to "green zones." Middle Eastern countries face significant challenges and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. With energy transitions, fiscal constraints, and shifting international priorities, addressing water security has become an urgent necessity.

The 1950s brought a wave of change to the Middle East. Abundant energy resources, foreign aid, and large-scale irrigation projects spurred development in arid regions and deserts. Between 1950 and 2000, the population of the Middle East and North Africa grew nearly fourfold, from 100 million to 380 million-expanding faster than any other region in the world. This era of abundance fueled the rapid expansion of agriculture, significantly increasing irrigated land.

When government agricultural policies combine with population growth, renewable freshwater resources begin to decline dramatically.

In the post-colonial Middle East, governments pursued self-sufficiency, rapid economic growth, and modernization by expanding and controlling water resources. They constructed hundreds of dams, some ranking among the largest in the world.

Dams are more than just structures for managing water-they symbolize power and potential in the region. Egypt's Aswan High Dam is not only a tool for water control but also a symbol of national sovereignty.

Declining groundwater levels and rapid evaporation have intensified water stress. Despite this, the dam-building boom of the early 21st century prioritized short-term interests and national sovereignty over sustainable cooperation. Water shortages have heightened transboundary water tensions across the region.

By 2021, water levels at Syria's lower Euphrates Dam had dropped to the "dead water level," preventing normal flow. As a result, Syria was unable to supply Jordan with the agreed-upon amount of water, leaving Jordan facing similar shortages.

Governments continued searching for water to sustain the excessive demand they had created. Many countries subsidized diesel fuel, enabling farmers to pump groundwater from greater depths. By the 1980s and 1990s, groundwater extraction rates in Syria, Jordan, and Yemen had reached unsustainable levels.

Today, the Middle East and North Africa region is facing the consequences of decades of unsustainable growth. Dams and agricultural policies have drained legendary waterways and former oases. The Tigris, Euphrates, and Jordan rivers now barely flow. Untreated wastewater, greywater, and agricultural runoff only worsen freshwater scarcity and contaminate the region's limited water supplies.

Pollution and salinization are steadily eroding the region's already scarce freshwater resources, both above and below the surface. In countries like Jordan, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, many aquifers are no longer safe for drinking. In the Gaza Strip, the tap water is salty and contaminated. The coastal aquifers shared by Palestinians and Israelis are unfit for consumption due to over-pumping and wastewater contamination. In Syria, fluoride levels in groundwater sources have reached toxic levels.

As water resources continue to dwindle and water infrastructure deteriorates, government-provided water remains cheap but inadequate and unsafe. Before UNICEF's water project reached communities in Saada, Yemen, in 2023, water cost $10 per cubic meter. In contrast, Germans-whose average annual income is more than 100 times that of Yemen-pay only about $1 per cubic meter for safe water from their taps.

Even the water that is transported is not always safe. It is often unregulated or poorly regulated, and at times comes from illegal wells, further depleting groundwater resources. As a result, waterborne diseases like cholera are making a comeback. In 2017 and 2019, Yemen accounted for 84% and 93% of global cholera cases, respectively.

As water resources become increasingly scarce, daily water consumption continues to decrease. Researchers typically use daily water consumption to assess the basic water needs of a population, but for many people, the reality is far more dire than what per capita water consumption alone can show.

The water situation is even more dire for the region's poor and displaced. The average American uses about 380 liters of water a day. An eight-minute shower uses about 65 liters, while a day's worth of dirty dishes consumes about 76 liters.

The policy response has failed to match the urgency of the problem. Water lost to leaks and theft-what water experts call "non-revenue water"-is alarmingly high. About 50% of Jordan's water is wasted, and the loss is even higher in some areas. Data from neighboring countries is scarce, but many believe the situation there may be even worse.

Although agriculture is a shrinking sector in many Middle Eastern economies, it remains a massive consumer of water.

Faced with growing water shortages, local governments have been forced to cut off water supplies to residents. While the Iraqi government has provided diesel, water, seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides on a subsidized or free basis, the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture reduced agricultural irrigation by 50% in 2022. Across the border, in northern Syria and the autonomous region of eastern Syria, authorities have rationed water for farmers and limited them to growing specific crops on just 25% of their land.

People who can no longer rely on the agricultural sector are also struggling to find work elsewhere. Without a safety net, many are flocking to cities in search of opportunities. However, governments are struggling to cope with rapid urban growth, and unemployment is already in the double digits across the region.

Cities are struggling to absorb newcomers, often viewing them as criminals. In 2017, Asad Abdul Amir al-Eidani was elected governor of Iraq's Basra province, using campaign rhetoric that marginalized these outsiders. After his election, he restricted legal residency in the city to those who could prove property ownership and claimed that Basra's "migrants" were responsible for all the crime in the city. Despite this resistance, urbanization and further population displacement are expected to rise as climate change brings highly variable precipitation and high evaporation rates. Water resources in the region are drying up, and the cost of maintaining the status quo is increasing. However, there is still a path forward.

Unsustainable water use has been woven into social, political, and economic systems for generations. To preserve a fragile balance between governments and citizens, water initiatives often prioritize short-term boosts to water supply over systemic reforms. Some governments turn to technology or desalination as quick fixes. However, experts widely argue that desalination is expensive, energy-heavy, environmentally risky, and insufficient to address a nation's full needs. Technology alone can't solve water crises. For instance, while countries have deployed advanced systems like SCADA to monitor water pressure and flow in real time, technology falls short if the political will is lacking to tackle water theft or fix aging infrastructure. Regional governments must therefore prioritize both water governance and supply expansion, ensuring reforms balance the interests of all stakeholders.

(1) Return to the Fertile Crescent

Though Drip Irrigation Systems And Soil Moisture Sensors May Seem Complex, They're Actually Affordable, Low-Tech Water-Saving Tools. Yet Their Successful Adoption Requires Overcoming Common Hurdles Seen In International Aid Projects. In Jordan, Farmers Often Redirect Saved Water To Other Uses Because They Lack Incentives To Sustain Conservation Efforts After Projects Conclude-Keeping Total Water Consumption Unchanged. This Underscores How Such Projects Falter When They Ignore Unresolved Political Challenges.

Reforms should focus on raising water prices, combating water theft, and capping water quotas-but these steps face challenges due to the political clout of large agricultural landowners. During Jordan's 2017 protests, public opposition to water price hikes was fierce. Strict measures without incentives or alternatives have limited impact. In the short term, farmers still need support to adopt water-saving systems, and subsidies for drought-resistant crops may be necessary to shift reliance away from water-intensive traditional crops.

Hydroponics and vertical farming hold immense potential, using just 1–20% of the water required by traditional agriculture. If powered by renewable energy, these methods could gain wider adoption. However, bureaucratic hurdles often stall progress. Subsidizing such projects (rather than imposing barriers) could improve their economic viability, sustainability, and political acceptability. Reducing agricultural water demand is politically fraught but urgent. Jordan's WIT project, for example, has slashed costs through straightforward water-saving methods, with each cubic meter of water saved costing just 1/170th of traditional agricultural investments.

(2) From Wastewater to Freshwater

Wastewater reuse is a politically practical conservation strategy. Properly treating wastewater and greywater safeguards freshwater supplies, boosts water availability for farming and livestock, enhances public health, and combats climate change. Wastewater treatment also directly reduces greenhouse gas emissions by cutting methane output. Still, most Middle Eastern nations lack adequate treatment infrastructure.

Jordan stands out: its As-Samra wastewater plant serves 65% of the population and generates 80% of its energy from biogas and hydropower. Treated wastewater flows into the King Abdullah Canal, supplying over 100 million cubic meters of recycled water annually to Jordan Valley farmers. Despite initial skepticism, recycled water has proven both safe and effective.

Decentralized Solutions and Challenges
Some communities are exploring decentralized wastewater treatment methods, such as artificial wetlands, which offer benefits like low energy consumption and minimal maintenance costs. Improved collection and treatment of greywater and rainwater can also mitigate flood risks and bolster water supplies. However, wastewater initiatives face political hurdles. High costs deter many politicians from investing in water infrastructure-evidenced by Iraq's 2018 allocation of just 0.2% of its budget to the water sector.

Additionally, wastewater projects often trigger the "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) effect, where residents fear treatment plants will lower property values or cause odor issues. Success hinges on raising public awareness of untreated wastewater's risks, pressuring governments to act, and demonstrating the benefits of treatment to communities.

(3) Beyond Water

1. Urbanization
To combat water scarcity, the Middle East must tackle climate change's irreversible impacts. As farmers increasingly migrate to cities amid global urbanization trends, failure to adapt to urban growth could prove catastrophic. If water-starved farmers relocate to cities where their livelihoods are incompatible with urban economies, social tensions may rise. Water experts urge governments to create non-agricultural job opportunities. Conversely, sustainable and inclusive urban planning could transform urbanization into a tool for climate adaptation, helping the region shift from agrarian economies to diversified industries.

2. Cross-Border Relations
Reforms can strengthen trust not only between citizens and governments but also between upstream nations like Turkey and downstream neighbors like Iraq. Better domestic water management would reduce blame-shifting over shared resources. Cross-border water cooperation extends beyond water itself: fostering economic and political ties can turn water from a point of conflict into one of collaboration. For example, despite disputes over the Euphrates and Tigris River allocations, Turkey occasionally releases more water to Iraq due to their interconnected economies and politics.

3. Building Trust
Enhancing water security demands long-term planning and cooperation-challenging in the Middle East's low-trust climate. Rebuilding trust requires government transparency and public recognition of the need for change. Jordan's 2023 phased water price hikes faced muted backlash thanks to proactive public outreach explaining the reforms. Governments should treat civil society as partners: activists, scientists, and academics can pinpoint pollution sources and rally communities around necessary changes.